AFL Grand Final 2022 Geelong vs Sydney Swans Ultimate Preview: Everything You Need To Know

Since the turn of the century, Geelong and Sydney have been two of the most consistently successful sides in the league, managing, for the most part, to avoid the inevitable spell in the lower reaches which typically follows a period of success. Between 2005 and 2012 they won five premierships between them, and have remained competitive for most of the decade since, appearing in three more Grand Finals combined. Those three appearances have all resulted in losses, but that will all change this weekend when they go head to head on the biggest stage, and in this guide we’ll tell you everything you need to know about the 2022 AFL Grand Final.

 

AFL Grand Final 2022 Date

As always, the AFL Grand Final will take place on the last Saturday in September, which this year will see it fall on the 24th of September.

 

What time is the AFL Grand Final?

This year’s Grand Final will kick off at the usual time of 2:30pm. Despite much speculation that the Grand Final would this year become a twilight or night game, the powers that be have stuck with tradition and the preferred option for the majority of fans, keeping the early afternoon time slot at which it has typically begun.

 

AFL Grand Final Stadium

The 2022 AFL Grand Final will this year take place at the MCG, the home of football. Of course, this is where it has been held nearly every year since five years after the VFL/AFL began, in 1902, with a couple of notable exceptions; from 1942-1945, when the MCG was used for military use, 1991 when it was being redeveloped, and the last two years, when the Grand Final has been held in first Brisbane and then Perth due to COVID.

 

AFL Grand Final Records and Trends

 

Records

Highest Score: 28.9 (177) – Carlton vs Richmond, 1972

Lowest Score: 1.7 (13) – Richmond vs Collingwood, 1927

Largest Winning Margin: 119 points – Geelong vs Port Adelaide, 2007

Highest Attendance: 121,696 – Collingwood vs Carlton, 1970

 

Trends

• Since the turn of the century, Geelong has appeared in five Grand Finals, winning three of them.
• Sydney has appeared in five Grand Finals in that same period of time, though they have won just two of them.
• Both of these teams enter the game on extended winning streaks, Geelong having won 15 straight and Sydney nine games in a row.
• The Swans’ last Grand Final victory came in 2012, while the Cats’ last Premiership triumph was the year prior.

 

AFL Grand Final 2022 Key Talking Points

 

Can Patrick Dangerfield Roll Back The Years To Grab His First Premiership?

 In his prime, Patrick Dangerfield was the best player in the AFL, but at 32 years of age and with injuries playing an increasingly significant role in his career, he’s no longer able to perform at that level as consistently as he once was. In last week’s preliminary final, however, he reminded us of what he’s capable of, racking up 28 touches and kicking two goals en route to ten coaches votes. If he can repeat that kind of performance, it will go a long way to helping him win his first ever Premiership.

 

Will Swans Suffer From Tough Preliminary Final? 

Though both Geelong and Sydney finished in the top four and enjoyed a week off after winning their respective qualifying finals, they endured vastly different preliminary final clashes. Geelong could hardly have been more consummate in their victory, knocking off the Lions by 71 points in a game which was over almost as soon as it began. The Swans, in contrast, just barely scraped through. They too appeared destined for an easy win, but a Collingwood comeback saw them scratching and clawing for the finish line and ultimately holding on by just a point. Will the fact that the Cats were able to take their foot off the gas relatively early while the Swans were forced to fight until the final siren prove advantageous?

 

Both Teams Historically Closely Matched In The Head-To-Head 

The Swans have won the past two games between these two sides, but their head to head record in recent times is very tight. In fact, harking back over the past decade, Geelong and Sydney have met on 18 occasions, and each have won nine of those 18 games. Unsurprisingly the Swans have been particularly strong in Sydney, but of their two games at the MCG in that period of time they’ve each won one game apiece.

 

AFL Grand Final: Geelong vs Sydney Preview

Whoever they ended up playing in the Grand Final, Geelong would have entered the game as favourites, and deservedly so. They have been quite literally unstoppable for months now, winning a huge 15 games in a row going back to May. During that time, they’ve barely looked like losing; they scraped over the line against the Tigers in Round 15 and just held off the Magpies in their qualifying final, but those two games aside they’ve scarcely been threatened. They ended the home and away season with the third most points for and third least points against, are strong all across the park, and have a terrific mixture of experience and youth. The age of their list, which so many saw as a weakness coming into the season, has proven to be a strength, with many of their best players well into their 30s but still contributing at a high level.

The Swans, in contrast, are just at the beginning of their journey with this current list. They have youth scattered all across the park, but so far none of them appear to have been overawed by the September spotlight. 

Names like Chad Warner, Errol Gulden and Nick Blakey – all 22 years or under – have become key parts of their system, complemented by experienced veterans like Luke Parker, Jake Lloyd and a guy called Buddy Franklin, while Callum Mills and Isaac Heeney are getting their best chance yet to show their wares on the big stage. Like the Cats, they profile like a Grand Final team, ending the season in the top four in terms of both points for and points against, and though they can’t match 15 successive wins in a row, the nine they’ve managed still speaks for itself. 

There will be important battles all over the field, but the one in Geelong’s forward line will be particularly significant. Their dominant and versatile key forward pairing of Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron has helped them to be far and away the most prolific team in the league in terms of marks inside 50, so nullifying this will be a key focus for the Swans. Of course, one of the best ways to do so is to prevent the ball from getting in there with too much speed and too much regularity. 

The contested ball battle will play a pivotal role in this and looms as a tight one, with these two sides both sitting in the top six in the league in that stat, but the Cats love to control the ball on the outside too, and if the Swans can take this part of their game away it will go a long way towards preventing them from moving the ball with too much ease, and ultimately reduce the impact of their forwards.

As is so often the case in Grand Finals, however, this one may very well come down to a few key moments. Geelong certainly deserve to be favourites and if any team is going to win comfortably it seems more likely to be them, but it seems more probable that this will be a close, contested game. If that’s the case, and this one comes down to the wire as so many expect, there will be a number of moments which will be looked back upon as going a long way to determining the 2022 Grand Finalists. 

 

AFL Grand Final Betting

Take a look at the odds for some of the key 2022 Grand Final markets below.

 

AFL Grand Final Winner Odds

Geelong – $1.51

Sydney – $2.57

 

AFL Grand Final Line Odds

Geelong -11.5 – $1.90

Sydney +11.5 – $1.90

 

AFL Grand Final Totals Line

Over 164.5 – $1.90

Under 164.5 – $1.90   

 

AFL Grand Final Tips and Predictions

 

Patrick Dangerfield Over 23.5 Disposals @ $2.14

Dangerfield has waited 15 seasons to win a Premiership, and now that it’s within reach, he will do everything in his power to bring one to Geelong for the first time since 2011. As mentioned earlier, he enters the game in fine form after a best on ground performance last week, and in each of his last five games he has had at least 22 disposals, surpassing this number on three of those occasions. At worst it seems likely that he will get very close to this number, and he could surpass it comfortably.

 

Geelong to win @ $1.50 

The Cats have been unequivocally the best team in the league this year, and while Sydney is a terrific side that should be competing at the pointy end of the season for years to come, if Geelong plays at their best they should win this game. The line of 12.5 is worth consideration too, but it wouldn’t be surprising if this match is relatively close, making Geelong to win the Grand Final outright the safer bet.