Wimbledon Women’s Singles Final Preview – Rybakina v Jabeur: Stats & Betting

History makers Ons Jabeur and Elena Rybakina will battle it out in the women’s singles final at Wimbledon on Saturday.

Tunisian No. 3 seed Jabeur became the first African woman to reach a Grand Slam final when she beat Tatjana Maria 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 in the semi-finals. She is also the first and the first Arab to secure a place in a major final.

Rybakina is the first singles player from Kazakhstan to reach a Grand Slam final. She dismantled former champion Simona Halep in the other semi-final, teeing up a fascinating clash between two very talented players with contrasting styles.

The match will begin at 2pm local time on Centre Court at Wimbledon. That means it will start at 11pm AEST on Saturday. You might want to cancel any Sunday morning plans, as it promises to be an entertaining clash.

 

Ons Jabeur Route to the Final

Jabeur’s career has been a slow burn up to this point. She made her WTA Tour debut more than a decade ago, when she entered the Qatar Open as a wildcard at the age of 17. It took her five years to break into the top 100 in the world rankings, but she had dropped back down to No. 180 by February 2018. Jabeur started to gain momentum in 2019, when she reached the third round of the US Open and moved up to a career-high No. 53 in the WTA rankings.

She maintained her upward curve over the next two years – reaching the quarter-finals of the Australian Open and the fourth round of the French Open – and she finally won her first WTA Tour title by clinching the Birmingham Classic in the UK in 2021. She was a quarter-finalist at Wimbledon last year, when she beat former champion Garbine Muguruza and  Iga Świątek before losing to Arnya Sabalenka. 

Jabeur broke into the top 10 by winning the Mubadala World Tennis Championship at the end of last year. She won the Madrid Open in May, becoming the first African player to win a WTA 1000 title, followed by the German Open last month. That propelled her up to No. 2 in the world rankings. She has won 84 matches across 2021 and 2022, more than any other woman on tour.

She entered Wimbledon as the third seed, and she has lived up to her billing. Jabeur defeated Mirjam Björklund, Katarzyna Kawa, Diane Parry and 24th seed Elise Mertens en route to her second consecutive quarter-final. She dropped the first set to Marie Bouzková, but came roaring back to win the second and third sets 6-1, 6-1. That teed up a semi-final showdown with her good friend Maria, the German mother-of-two who captivated fans this year. It was a tough match, but Jabeur ultimately prevailed 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 after producing an array of thrilling drop shots, slices and acrobatic feats.

 

Elena Rybakina Route to the Final

Rybakina is four years younger than Jabeur. She grew up in Moscow, where she dreamed of becoming a gymnast or a figure skater. However, coaches said she was too tall for either sport, so her father suggested she try her hand at tennis. She showed great promise, and she made her WTA Tour debut in October 2017. The following year, Rybakina acquired Kazakh citizenship and switched federations from Russia to Kazakhstan.

Her first WTA Tour triumph came in 2019, when she clinched the Budapest Open. With that win, she made her top 100 debut in the WTA rankings at No. 65. Rybakina continued to climb the rankings, and she beat Serena Williams at the French Open last year. She ended up losing in the quarter-finals, which was her best Grand Slam finish – until now.

Rybakina reached a career high of No. 12 in the world rankings in January 2022. She is the No. 17 seed at Wimbledon, but she has blazed a trail of destruction across the tournament. Her path began with a tricky first round clash against CoCo Vandeweghe, which she won 7-6, 7-5. Next up, she faced former US Open champion Bianca Andreescu, a match she claimed in straight sets.

She saw off Zheng Qinwen and Petra Martić in the subsequent rounds without dropping a set, teeing up a quarter-final showdown with Ajla Tomljanović. That one went to three sets, but Rybakina ultimately proved too powerful for the Aussie, winning 4-6, 6-2, 6-3. She went into a semi-final against former Wimbledon champion Simona Halep as the heavy underdog, but she destroyed the Romanian on Friday. It finished 6-3, 6-3 to Rybakina, who displayed phenomenal power, aggression and poise from the baseline.

She will now bid to become the first Kazakh player to win a major singles trophy. Switching federations in 2018 has proved fortuitous, as Russians were banned from Wimbledon this year following the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

 

Rybakina v Jabeur Key Stats

• Jabeur had a 5-4 record at Wimbledon prior to this year. She was eliminated in the first round in 2017, the second round in 2018 and the first round in 2019, before reaching the quarter-final last year.
• Rybakina was 3-1 at Wimbledon before this year’s tournament. She reached the fourth-round last year.
• Rybakina is 17-11 at Grand Slams and Jabeur is 26-20.
• Jabeur has won two of her three matches against Rybakina. Each of their three meetings took place on hard courts. The Kazakh won in three sets when they clashed in Wuhan back in 2019, but Jabeur won in three sets in Dubai last year. Jabeur was 6-4, 3-2 ahead when Rybakina retired with injury in their last match.
• Jabuer has won two grass titles. She is 2-2 in finals this year, winning in Madrid and Berlin.
• Rybakina has not won a grass title. Her only final appearance this year came in Adelaide, when she lost to Ash Barty.
• Rybakina is 0-3 against players ranked in the top two in the world rankings. Jabeur is currently No. 2 and Rybakina is No. 19.
• Rybakina has hit 217 aces this season, more than any other player. She has 49 at Wimbledon, compared to 17 for Jabeur.
• Jabeur has successfully returned 85% of serves at this year’s tournament, compared to 70% for Rybakina.
• Rybakina has won 86% of service games at Wimbledon and 30% of return games. Jabeur has won 85% of service games and 47% of return games.

 

Wimbledon Women’s Singles Final Winner Trends

• The last 10 Wimbledon women’s champions were ranked inside the top 15. That means history is on Jabeur’s side.
• The higher seeded player has won the last three Wimbledon finals. The last champion to beat a higher seed was Garbine Muguruza in 2017.
• Eight of the last 10 Wimbledon winners had previously won a Grand Slam, but that trend will be upset this year.
• Just two of the last 10 women’s finals went to three sets – Serena Williams’ victory over Agnieszka Radwanska in 2012 and Barty’s triumph against Karolina Pliskova last year.

 

Jabeur vs. Rybakina Betting Options

We make Jabeur the $1.66 favourite to be crowned Wimbledon champion. Rybakina is the 2.27 underdog.

If you are interested in line betting, you can find $2.01 on Jabeur -2.5. That means she would need to win by an overall margin of at least three games. Alternatively, Jabeur -1.5 is $1.76, Jabeur -2 is $1.85, Jabeur -3 is $2.07 and Jabeur -3.5 is priced at $2.20.

We are offering $1.67 on Rybakina +3.5, $1.75 on Rybakina +3, $1.82 on Rybakina +2.5, $1.95 on Rybakina +2 and $2.07 on Rybakina +1.5.

The total games line is set at 21.5, with $1.86 on over and $1.94 on under. There are alternate total games options too, such as over 22 games at $2.01 and under 21 games at $2.06. You can also combine winner and totals doubles, and you can bet on the total games each player will win.

We are offering $1.57 on a two set match and $2.43 on a four set match. You can bet on the correct score in sets – Jabeur 2-0 is the favourite at $2.42 – or you can predict the correct score of the first set, with $4.80 on Jabeur to win 6-4 and $38 on Rybakina to win 6-0.

 

Wimbledon Women’s Singles Final Tips

This promises to be a fascinating spectacle. Jabeur is a tremendous athlete, and she loves to hit deft drop shots, laser-guided slices and volleys.

Rybakina prefers to stick to the baseline and hammer powerful shots towards the back of the court. She is 6-foot tall, with a ferocious serve, and she looked extremely strong against Halep. We could be in for a real clash of styles.

Tip 1: Over 22 games at $2.01 – This could prove to be a long, drawn-out affair between two players competing in their first Grand Slam final.

Tip 2: Three set match at $2.43 – Rybakina’s powerful serving should help her claim a set in this match, ensuring it goes the distance on Centre Court.

Tip 3: Ons Jabeur to win at $1.66 – Rybakina is extremely powerful, but Jabeur is currently the best player in the world. She is superb at returning serve, which could negate some of Rybakina’s power, and she should ultimately get the job done.

 

**Odds quoted are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.