Wimbledon Men’s Singles Final Preview – Djokovic v Kyrgios: Stats & Betting

Nick Kyrgios will have the chance to prove that he is the world’s best tennis player when he takes on Novak Djokovic in Sunday’s Wimbledon final.

The Aussie native made that controversial claim in an interview earlier this summer – and he was widely mocked. After all, he had never been past the quarter-final stage of a Grand Slam, and he was languishing at No. 40 in the world rankings.

However, Kyrgios has lived up to his own hype at Wimbledon. He has swept his opponents aside

The match will begin at 2pm local time on Centre Court at Wimbledon. That means it will start at 11pm AEST on Sunday. You might want to cancel any Monday morning plans, as it promises to be an entertaining clash.

 

Nick Kyrgios Route to the Final

Krgios decided to skip the clay court season this year to focus on preparing for Wimbledon. That caused him to slip down the world rankings, but it has proved to be a shrewd decision. Kyrgios took part in two grass-court tournaments last month – at Stuttgart and Halle – and he was a beaten semi-finalist on both occasions.

He was unseeded for Wimbledon and he began his campaign with a first round match against unheralded British wildcard Paul Jubb. It was a tempestuous affair, but Kyrgios scraped through in five sets. He was subsequently fined for spitting at a spectator that had given him grief throughout proceedings. The Aussie has gone from strength to strength since then.

Kyrgios was more restrained in his next match, a routine straight sets victory over 26th seed Filip Krajinovic, but he saved the fireworks for his third-round showdown with No. 4 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Canberra native berated the officials throughout the match and Tsitsipas lost his cool on multiple occasions. Kyrgios won in four sets, and both men were fined in the aftermath.

The Aussie has been more restrained in the subsequent rounds. He beat Brandon Nakashima in five and then eased to a straight sets victory over Cristian Garín to set up a semi-final against Rafa Nafal. However, the Spaniard pulled out with an injury, handing Kyrgios a bye to his first Grand Slam final.

 

Novak Djokovic Route to the Final

Djokovic headed into 2022 level on 20 Grand Slams apiece with Nadal and Roger Federer. This should have been the year in which he moved clear of his great rivals in the race to become the most decorated male player of all time. However, it all went south when he was deported from Australia following a row over his vaccine status.

Nadal grasped the opportunity with both hands, prevailing in Melbourne to move up to 21 Grand Slams. The clay court king then beat Djokovic en route to winning yet another French Open title at Roland-Garros last month. It took Djokovic a while to return to the peak of his powers after losing match fitness following his deportation, but he appears to be edging back to his brilliant best this summer.

The Serbian superstar beat Kwon Soon-woo in the first round at Wimbledon, making him the first player to win at least 80 matches at each of the four Grand Slams. He then made short work of Thanasi Kokkinakis, Miomir Kekmanovic and Tim van Rijthoven to secure a place in the quarter-finals.

Djokovic needed five sets to get past Jannick Sinner, but his grit, determination and athleticism ultimately shone through. In previous years, he has looked infallible at Wimbledon. That has not always been the case this time around, but his experience has helped him get the job done. He lost the first set of his semi-final against Cameron Norrie on Friday, but he bounced back to win the next three sets with ease.

 

Kyrgios vs. Djokovic Rivalry

Kyrgios and Djokovic have played against one another on two previous occasions – on hard court at Acapulco and Indian Wells in 2017. Kyrgios won both best-of-three matches in straight sets.

Since then, he has emerged as a fierce critic of Djokovic’s ability, claiming the Serbian does not deserve his status as the greatest player in the modern era.

However, the two men bonded following Djokovic’s deportation from Australia earlier this year. Kyrgios said they now regularly DM each other on Instagram. He described their “bromance” as “weird”, but any budding romance will be put to one side on Sunday as both men seek to make history.

 

Key Stats

• Djokovic has won 89% of his matches at Wimbledon. He has a 79-10 record at SW19.
• The Serbian is bidding to win the Wimbledon title for the fourth time in a row. His last defeat here came all the way back in 2017, when injury forced him to retire midway through a quarter-final with Thomas Berdych.
• This will be Djokovic’s 32nd Grand Slam final. He has 20 wins and 11 defeats from his previous 11 appearances. He is 327-47 at Grand Slams in his career.
• Kyrgios has a 15-7 record at Wimbledon. That gives him a win percentage of 68%, making this his best Grand Slam.
• The Aussie has never previously been past the fourth round at Wimbledon.
• His previous best at a Grand Slam came in 2015, when he reached the quarter-finals of the Australian Open.
• Kyrgios is 2-0 against Djokovic in his career.
• The winner of this match will receive £2 million (A$3.5 million).

 

Wimbledon Men’s Singles Final Winner Trends

Djokovic is the only men’s player to win back-to-back Wimbledon titles in the past decade, so history is on his side.

Nineteen of the past 20 men’s finalists were inside the top-9 in the world rankings. The only exception was Djokovic, who was ranked 21st in 2019 after a long absence due to injury.

You have to go back to 1996 for the last time a player ranked as low as Kyrgios reached the final at Wimbledon. Unseeded MaliVai Washington lost to No. 17 seed Richard Krajicek that year.

Eight of the last 10 men’s winners were ranked inside the world’s top 3. 

Each of the past 10 winners had previously won a Grand Slam, and they had all won at least 74% of their grass court matches. None of those trends favour Kyrgios.

 

Kyrgios vs. Djokovic Betting Options

We make Djokovic the $1.25 favourite to win this match. He may have a poor record against Kyrgios, but he has not lost on Wimbledon’s hallowed turf for several years. Kyrgios is the $4.10 underdog.

If that seems a little risky, you can check out the line betting markets. We have priced Djokovic -4.5 games at $1.81. A bet on him would require the Serb to win by an overall margin of at least 5 games in the match. Alternatively, you could go for Kyrgios +4.5 at $2.03. That would pay out if Kyrgios won the match or lost by a margin of no more than 4 games.

The total games line has been set at 39.5, with $1.91 on over and $1.89 on under. You do not need to specify the winner in that market, although you can combine a totals bet with a winner bet for a double. There are lots of alternate lines and over/under betting options too.

Some of the most popular markets focus on set betting. You can bet on the correct score in sets – Djokovic to win 3-0 is the favourite at $2.51, while Kyrgios 3-0 is the roughie at $14 – or you can bet on the first set score. We have total games markets on both players, and various additional options, so check out the Wimbledon final betting options and make your plays today.

 

Wimbledon Men’s Singles Final Tips

Djokovic is blessed with vital experience at the business end of a Grand Slam. He will be his usual nerveless self on Sunday, and his mental strength should stand him in good stead.

However, there are reasons for optimism among Kyrgios’ fans. He can take a great deal of encouragement from his record against the Serb, and from his record in general against players in the top-5.

He will also be well-rested. Kyrgios has not played since Wednesday, whereas Djokovic had a four-set match on Friday, so fatigue will be more of an issue for the Serb as the match wears on. Kyrgios will not go down without a fight. He has the quality to keep each set tight and to win sets, so this could be a close match.

Tip 1: Over 39.5 games at $1.91 – This could prove to be a drawn-out affair between two strong players that boast a great deal of power and aggression from the baseline.

Tip 2: Nick Kyrgios +4.5 at $2.03 – Kyrgios should be very competitive in Sunday’s final. His record against Djokovic speaks for itself, and he has grown into this tournament. If he loses, it is likely to be by a narrow margin,

Tip 3: Five set match at $3.70 – Sinner took Djokovic to five sets in the quarter-finals, and there is no reason to think that Kyrgios cannot repeat the feat on Sunday.

 

**Odds quoted are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.