State of Origin Game 3 – Queensland Maroons Team Preview: Line Ups, Stats, Betting & Odds
After a terrific start to the series, things went haywire in the second half of Game 2 for the Maroons. They conceded 30 points without troubling the scorers themselves, resulting in a 44-12 defeat and a series locked at 1-1 heading into the decider. After that capitulation, they will head into Game 3 as underdogs despite the fact that they will have the benefit of the home ground advantage. This is everything you need to know about their team heading into the big game.
State of Origin Game 3 Queensland Maroons Team Line Up
Starting Line-Up
- Kalyn Ponga (Newcastle Knights)
- Selwyn Cobbo (Brisbane Broncos)
- Valentine Holmes (North Queensland Cowboys)
- Dane Gagai (Newcastle Knights)
- Murray Taulagi (North Queensland Cowboys)**
- Cameron Munster (Melbourne Storm) **
- Daly Cherry-Evans, capt. (Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles)
- Lindsay Collins (Sydney Roosters)
- Ben Hunt (St George Illawarra Dragons)
- Josh Papalii (Canberra Raiders)
- Kurt Capewell (Brisbane Broncos)
- Jeremiah Nanai (North Queensland Cowboys)
- Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (Gold Coast Titans)
Interchange
- Harry Grant (Melbourne Storm)
- Jai Arrow (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
- Patrick Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos)
- Tom Gilbert (North Queensland Cowboys)
Reserves
- Thomas Flegler (Brisbane Broncos)
- Tom Dearden (North Queensland Cowboys)
- Beau Fermor (Gold Coast Titans)
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (North Queensland Cowboys)
- Sam Walker (Sydney Roosters)
**Ruled out with COVID – Taulagi to be replaced by Corey Oats. Tom Dearden to come into the Maroons 17.
Queensland Maroons Game 3 Team News
Despite being comprehensively beaten last outing, Maroons coach Billy Slater is sticking fat with the side he selected for Game 2, making just one change to the squad that went down 44-12 and conceded 30 points in the second half in Perth. Felise Kaufasi, a regular in the Queensland side since 2018, will miss due to family reasons, with North Queensland’s Tom Gilbert coming into the squad in his absence. Gilbert will not, however, be a direct replacement. He’ll start on the bench, while his Cowboys teammate Jeremiah Nanai will join the back row.
Queensland Maroons Game 3 Preview
Heading into the series, there was never any doubting the talent possessed in the Queensland squad. There were, however, plenty of question marks surrounding their ability to put it all together, and with New South Wales being widely viewed as the more cohesive team, the Maroons entered Game 1 and the series as underdogs.
In that game, they put those doubts to rest – at least momentarily. A hugely impressive display saw them walk away from the Blues’ solitary home game with a 16-10 victory, a result which turned the series on its head and suggested that the raw talent they possessed was more than sufficient to tackle New South Wales.
Unfortunately, that all changed after half-time in Game 2. Following a competitive first half which saw them just two points down and 40 minutes away from an historic series win, the Maroons completely unravelled, conceding five tries in a 24-minute period which saw them go from the box seat to win the series, to once again being the underdog heading into the series decider.
But while they will go in as a $2.25 underdog in Game 3, one thing is heavily in their favour; the location of the game. With the series locked at 1-1, the Maroons have the distinct advantage of playing the final game on their home turf, a venue at which they have been historically extremely difficult to beat; particularly in Game 3s. Queensland has won over 63% of Origin games played at Suncorp Stadium, and when those games have been series deciders that number goes up to 80%. After their abysmal second half in Game 2 it’s easy to see why they’re underdogs, but they are more than capable of winning this game.
Queensland Maroons Team Stats
Take a look at some of the most notable Queensland Maroons team stats from the first two games of the series.
Points Scored: 28
Points Conceded: 54
Completion Rate: 80%
Tackle Efficiency: 85.2%
Errors per Game: 9.0
Penalties per Game: 6.0
Total Possession: 44%
Queensland Maroons Player Stats
Check out the Queensland Maroons leaders in the most notable statistical categories below.
Tries: Dane Gagai, Daly Cherry-Evans, Valentine Holmes, Felise Kaufusi, Cameron Munster
Conversions: Valentine Holmes (4/5)
Most Try Assists: Kalyn Ponga (2)
Most Run Metres: Cameron Munster (150 per game)
Most Kick Return Metres: Kalyn Ponga (49.5 per game)
Most Post Contact Metres: Patrick Carrigan (61 per game)
Most Tackles: Patrick Carrigan (38.5 per game)
Most Kicking Metres: Daly Cherry-Evans (453.5 per game)
How Have Queensland Maroons Fared in Game 3 Historically?
In short, the answer to this question is very well. The Maroons have a dominant record in Game 3, despite the fact that the overall series head-to-head is relatively close. Of the 40 Game 3s played since the inaugural Origin series, they have won 65% of them, and secured a couple of draws which saw them retain the Shield having won the year prior. That number is in contrast to the 52% of overall Origin games the Maroons have won.
And when considering only Game 3s in which the Shield was still up for grabs – which accounts for 21 of the 40 Origin series which have been played – the Maroons record becomes more imposing still – albeit not by a great deal. With the series tied at 1-1 they have won 67% of the time, while also managing those two aforementioned draws, losing just five out of 21 of these games.
Of course, many of those games have been played either in New South Wales or at a neutral venue, and unsurprisingly on those occasions Queensland hasn’t been quite as dominant. At home with the series on the line, however, they have been hard to stop. With the Suncorp Stadium crowd behind them and the Shield up for grabs, the Maroons have won 80% of the time, and lost on just a solitary occasion in ten matches. It’s an intimidating record and one which speaks to the proverbial extra leg they seem to grow when playing on their home turf, and if history is anything to go by they should perhaps be getting a little more respect than they deserve heading into this game.
History alone, however, will not win them the game. The 30-0 second half of Game 2 will be hard to come back from, and affirmed many of the question marks which surrounded this team heading into the series. Playing such an important game on their home turf is no doubt a big advantage as has been proven time and time again in the past, but past performances won’t win them back the Shield.
Queensland Maroons Suncorp Stats & Records
Take a look in detail at the Maroons’ dominant past record at Suncorp Stadium.
Games Played: 58
Games Won: 37
Games Drawn: 1
Games Lost: 20
Points Scored: 1093
Points Conceded: 845
Game 3s Played: 24
Game 3s Won: 16
Game 3s Drawn: 1
Game 3s Lost: 7
Highest Score: 52 (def. New South Wales 6; Game 3, 2015)
Lowest Score: 2 (lost to New South Wales 18; Game 1, 1985)
Queensland Maroons Betting Markets
Below, we take a look at some of the major betting markets as they relate to the Maroons.
Queensland Maroons Win Betting Odds
After the shellacking they copped in Game 2 the Maroons will head into this one as underdogs, but as mentioned earlier they do have history in their favour having won eight of ten series deciders at Suncorp Stadium.
Queensland Maroons Win – $2.25
Queensland Maroons Line Betting Odds
If you’re confident that the Maroons will at least get close, you can get them at close to even money with a 2.5-point head start.
Queensland Maroons +2.5 – $1.90
Queensland Maroons Player Betting Markets
Now to the player props – let’s take a look at some of Maroons’ best chances in the first try scorer, first half try scorer, and Player of the Match markets.
Maroons First Try Scorer Odds
Selwyn Cobbo leads all Queensland players in the first try scorer market, while further down the list, Dane Gagai might offer up a little value as one of the most prolific try scorers in Origin history.
Selwyn Cobbo – $10.00
Kalyn Ponga – $16.00
Valentine Holmes – $18.00
Dane Gagai – $19.00
Jeremiah Nanai – $23.00
Harry Grant – $26.00
Maroons First Half Try Scorer Odds
There’s a little less value in this market than the above, but it also only requires the selected player to score at any time in the first 40 minutes.
Selwyn Cobbo – $3.65
Kalyn Ponga – $5.20
Valentine Holmes – $5.40
Dane Gagai – $6.00
Jeremiah Nanai – $7.50
Harry Grant – $7.75
Maroons Player of the Match Odds
Daly Cherry-Evans – $11.00
Kalyn Ponga – $15.00
Harry Grant – $21.00
Ben Hunt – $26.00
Patrick Carrigan – $26.00
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui – $26.00
**Odds quoted are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.
